Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.268640 0.327080 0.398447 0.493117 0.617068 0.776200 9.998721e-01
2025-05-11 0.183052 0.243203 0.325324 0.448747 0.635215 0.916334 1.392927e+00
2025-05-18 0.127732 0.181289 0.260985 0.393433 0.619219 1.011919 1.807592e+00
2025-05-25 0.092201 0.138096 0.211445 0.344331 0.596647 1.098368 2.313049e+00
2025-06-01 0.072590 0.114458 0.186173 0.327823 0.628689 1.321097 3.385428e+00
2025-06-08 0.058685 0.096893 0.166592 0.315870 0.669499 1.614725 5.162968e+00
2025-06-15 0.048884 0.084232 0.152657 0.311165 0.730230 2.043031 8.476706e+00
2025-06-22 0.041290 0.073944 0.140678 0.307104 0.796849 2.603797 1.459948e+01
2025-06-29 0.034154 0.063020 0.124581 0.287477 0.811457 3.042457 2.292841e+01
2025-07-06 0.025998 0.048525 0.097364 0.229638 0.670570 2.662951 2.291920e+01
2025-07-13 0.022652 0.043461 0.090413 0.225050 0.715894 3.304755 4.150661e+01
2025-07-20 0.020591 0.040753 0.088350 0.234202 0.826278 4.629495 1.022149e+02
2025-07-27 0.018723 0.038296 0.086811 0.246755 0.981206 6.999243 3.698380e+02
2025-08-03 0.016771 0.035267 0.083050 0.250928 1.112854 10.082827 1.687958e+03
2025-08-10 0.014709 0.031582 0.076565 0.242603 1.174967 13.105241 9.069125e+03
2025-08-17 0.012865 0.028106 0.069826 0.230443 1.206179 16.362380 9.159484e+04
2025-08-24 0.011693 0.026123 0.067005 0.233400 1.358681 24.622237 8.685379e+11
2025-08-31 0.010684 0.024382 0.064480 0.236777 1.535341 38.445011 NaN
2025-09-07 0.009865 0.022996 0.062736 0.243335 1.772314 65.423637 NaN
2025-09-14 0.009123 0.021688 0.060912 0.248912 2.034295 115.970787 NaN
2025-09-21 0.008251 0.019869 0.056883 0.240694 2.130032 169.857267 NaN
2025-09-28 0.006971 0.016712 0.047522 0.198620 1.708466 120.403902 NaN
2025-10-05 0.006462 0.015717 0.045678 0.198712 1.876105 201.712437 NaN